Giro Predictions

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The Giro d’Italia 2019 is a Grand Tour cycling stage race that is scheduled from May 12 to June 2, 2019 in Italy. This year’s race will be the 102nd running of the Giro d’Italia and it is the first Grand Race of the year.

This year’s Giro d’Italia will begin with an 8.2 km time trial in Bologna and will also end with a 15.6 km time trial in Verona. The race consists of 21 stages totalling 3.518.5 km. Last year, Chris Froome won the race last year and he was joined at the podium by second placer Tom Dumoulin and third placer Miguel Angel Lopez.

This year, defending championFroome had decided to skip the Giro in order to focus on the 2019 Tour de France. In his absence, 2018 runner-up and 2017 winner Tom Dumoulin is the odds on favorite to win the race.

Here are the current odds to win the 2019 Giro d’Italia. Odds are taken from bet365 as of 4/12/19:

Giro Predictions Definition

CyclistOdds
Tom Dumoulin+175
Simon Yates+275
Primoz Roglic+300
Egan Bernal+300
Miguel Angel Lopez+1400
Vincenzo Nibali+1400
Mikel Landa+2200
Ilnur Zakarin+6000
Richard Caparaz+8000
Alejandro Valverde+8000
Tadej Pogacar+8000
Ivan Ramiro Sosa+10000
Domenico Pozzovivo+12500
Rafal Majka+15000
Johan Esteban Chaves+15000
Bob Jungels+18000
Bauke Mollema+20000
Davide Formolo+25000
Pello Bilbao+25000
Maximilian Schachmann+25000
Ion Izaguirre+30000
Jack Haig+30000

Who Are The Favorites?

Giro Stage 4 Predictions

Defending Giro d’Italia champion Chris Froome will not be here to defend his crown because he has chosen to skip the race and focus on his preparations for the Tour de France. That leaves 2017 winner Tom Dumoulin as the most recent Giro d’Italia champion in the current field. The Dutchman also placed 2nd in the Giro D’Italia last year, the only cyclist to finish within a minute of Froome in the race and these recent Giro performances are the reason why Dumoulin is the top betting favorite to win this year’s race.

The 28-year old Maastricht, Netherlands native has not won a race this year as of this writing but he placed 6th in the UAE Tour and 4th in the Tirreno Adriatico in the previous months. Dumoulin spoke about his preference for the Giro D’Italia over the Tour de France this year, making us believe that he is more than ready to reclaim the crown this year.

Simon Yates finished 21st in this race last year but he won three stages and held the pink jersey after stages 6-18. Yates had a strong 2018 as he was also 2nd placer in the Paris-Nice, Tour de Pologne and 4th in the Volta a Catalunya. This year, Yates finished 25th in the Paris-Nice and 13th in the Volta a Catalunya.

Primoz Roglic won the Tour de Romandie and Tour of the Basque Country last year and is this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico winner. The 29-year old Slovenian also won the first ever UAE Tour last February.

22-year old Colombian Egan Bernal is one of the up and coming riders this season. Bernal won the 2018 Tour of California and the recent 2019 Paris-Nice. Bernal also finished 3rd in the time trial of the 2019 National Road Championships in Colombia, 3rd overall in the 2019 Volta a Catalunya and 4th in the 2019 Tour Colombia.

2016 winner Vincenzo Nibali is another former champion who is focusing his efforts on the 2019 Giro d’Italia. Last January, Nibali said that the Giro will be his primary goal for 2019. Nibali also won the Giro d’Italia in 2013, placed 2nd in 2011 and finished third in 2012 and 2017. Given the announced route of the 2019 Giro d’Italia, Nibali’s all-around versatility should be an edge in the race.

Who Wins?

When you look at the names who have confirmed their participation in the 2019 Giro d’Italia, a pair of former winners stand out. First is Tom Dumoulin who obviously has the best results in the Giro the past two years and then there is two-time maglia rosa winner Vincenzo Nibali whose all-around skills may be best suited for the 2019 Giro D’Italia. Nibali defends himself well in the time trials and is a strong finisher as gives out his best in the third week of competition. He is also a mentally tough rider who can overcome critical moments because of his “doesn’t give a damn attitude”. And then of course he is a specialist in the Grand Tours, being one of only seven cyclists to win the three Grand Tours in his career.

When it comes to the classification winner, Tom Dumoulin is the man to beat no doubt about that. But when it comes to betting value, I will go with Vincenzo Nibali to win the 2019 Giro d’Italia.

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Pinzolo hosted the Giro for the last time in 2015. The race went to Aprica and Mikel Landa soloed to victory, while Steven Kruijswijk and Alberto Contador finished second and third behind the Basque.

The riders tackle the Campo Carlo Magno from the gun, which is a 15.3 kilometres climb at 6.1%. They continue onto the Passo Castrin, also known as Hofmanhdjoch. The essential section is 8 kilometres long and rises at 8.5%, but before this the Castrin has been going for 13.5 kilometres. The first part goes up at, the second part is a false flat, while the third part is that 8 kilometres ascent at 8.5%.

A prolonged intermediate phase leads onto one of the most famous climbs of Italy. The Giro tackles the Passo dello Stelvio on the Prato side. This way, the ascent amounts to 24.7 kilometres, while the average gradient sits at 7.5%. The first 10 kilometres are relatively easy before the Stelvio kicks it up a notch with gradients rarely falling below 8%.

The first rider at the Stelvio summit wins the Cima Coppi before plunging down towards Bormio without reaching the village. In the last first hairpin the route turns right to continue towards Premadio. The riders leave the main road and continue to the hairpin-filled Torri di Fraele to finish the ascent at the Cancano dam. The finish climb ascent is 8.7 kilometres long and the average gradient sits at 6.8% before a flat run-in of 1.7 kilometres to the line.

The intermediate sprint at kilometre 196.4 comes with 3, 2 and 1 seconds, while time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds are awarded to the first three riders on the line.

Another interesting read: results race report 18th stage 2020 Giro d’Italia.

Giro d’Italia 2020 stage 18: routes, profiles, more

Giro predictions vs

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Castrin


Stelvio, route


Stelvio, profile


Laghi di Cancano

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